For China, with the population of aged 20 to 65 as the working population, the number is close to the peak before and after 2020. Core population in 2012 will fall to 30.3 ﹪. If the junior middle school and the education degree of laborers as low-end labor market supply and demand, the average lack of low-end labor research city of about 7300 people. Look from the phenomenon, the gap since 2001 began to appear, and gradually expand.
In fact, in our country, the population structure change caused by the aging degree of deepening and the rural surplus labor gradually reduce joint action in the change of the number of labor supply, the former is incremental change of the labor force, the latter is a labor of inventory changes.
The most prominent trend, China's working-age population change is incremental in continued to decline. Sharply since 1992, China's total fertility rate dropped to below 2.0, in recent years has been maintained at low levels of around 1.5.
With fertility rate continued to decline, the society enters the "aging" deepening period, working age population proportion reduced gradually. Based on the analysis and forecasting of the population age structure, after 2015, China's working-age population will appear negative growth, will reach about 2035 working-age population reduce the supply of the bottom. Thus, to slow or even negative growth in the working-age population growth, under the condition of our country labor population will appear around 2015 a turning point, and 35 years continued to decline in the future.
Our country has a typical dual economy characteristic, the transfer of rural surplus labor force is one of the important channel for the past thirty years of labor supply. As the Labour supply increment continues to decline, the Labour market supply and demand in China is also changing, mainly reflects in reality for the rising cost of labor economic phenomena.
In recent years, China's migrant workers nominal monthly wages have risen, basically kept more than 5% growth, individual years reached double-digit growth; The actual monthly average annual growth rate is generally maintained at about 5%. As the migrant wages rise considerably, the overall worker average wage of China's migrant workers wages and gradually narrow the gap between. Because of rural migrant workers in the modern production sector, a large proportion, which to a certain extent, led to the overall Labour costs rising rapidly in our country.
At the same time, China's agricultural sector labor cost is also rising rapidly, up even more than non-agricultural production department. In recent years, China's grain, cotton and scale pig farming industry employees' wage rise at the rate of annual average around 15%, increase industries such as manufacturing and construction worker pay is significantly higher than 10% growth.
The labor wage gap between agriculture and non-agricultural industries gradually narrowed, to a certain extent, also led to China's overall labor costs rise gradually. From the social worker wage, migrant wages and agricultural wages a few more comprehensive analysis, can see clearly that our labor price appeared rapidly rising trend for a long time, it proved that the reduction in the number of labor supply in China appeared a certain degree of labor supply and demand relations change.
Economic growth depends on labor supply, accumulation of physical capital, human capital accumulation, technological progress and other factors. Reduced labor force growth, capital accumulation and lower resources are unfavorable factors of economic growth. We need to have the consciousness of hardship and the sense of urgency, and fully estimates the future difficulties; Need to develop long-term development planning, to avoid short-term behavior. The next ten years to do a lot of things, including:
Attaches great importance to the resource saving and environment protection, improve the quality of economic growth. Environment directly affects people's health and quality of life. At present, China's many places of air and water pollution is quite serious, should be taken seriously. Attach great importance to the protection of resources, a mining enterprise don't blindly, causing the waste and pollution. Many countries pay attention to the resource conservation and try to save their own resources, to future use. We should attach great importance to the accumulation of national wealth, including resources, environment and tangible and intangible capital.
The development of education, human capital accumulation. At the same time, the growth in labor should improve the education level of the workers, increase everyone's knowledge and skills, improve the total amount of human capital in our country. At present, should be pushing for 12 years of education, increase the secondary and higher technical school investment, improve school sports facilities, emphasize the cultivation of the students' imagination and creativity.
Single from the perspective of the increment and stock and the price of Labour supply is in at our unexpected speed decreases, which means that as a foundation for economic development elements of "labor" has a substantial transformation. In order to ensure the long-term stable economic growth in China, according to the fundamental changes in the field of economy, we must grasp the relevant reserves of strategic countermeasures.